The role of migration and demographic change in small island futures

Low-lying atoll islands are especially threatened by anticipated sea-level rise, and migration is often mentioned as a potential response of these island societies. Further, small states developing population, economic adaptation policies to plan the future. Policies, such raising or land reclamation, require long-term vision on populations migration. However, population systems in settings poorly understood. To address this deficiency requires an approach that considers changing environmental socio-economic factors individual decision-making. This article introduces conceptual model explores within one nation, Maldives, example. Agent-based simulations internal from 1985–2014 used basis explore range demographic futures up 2050. The consider set consistent demographic, environmental, policy international narratives, which describe key uncertainties. capital Malé has experienced significant growth over last decades, growing around 67,000 153,000 inhabitants 2000 2014, comprising about 38 percent national 2014. In all future possible governance, globalization changes, continues while many other effectively abandoned. analysis suggests Maldives strong inertia, radical change and/or drivers would be needed for existing trends change. Findings study may have implications development planning climate more widely nations.